Webinar Replay: IMRG – The Weekly Data Show #122

In the lead-up to Black Friday 2022, campaigns began earlier than in previous years. Data from GBG Loqate and GFS shows that while some retailers saw spikes in transactions after launching sales, volumes were often below last year’s levels. One major sports fashion brand doubled its normal daily transactions after starting a sale, but this was still 50 percent down compared to the same launch day in 2021. GFS data from over 400 retailers indicated weekday parcel volumes were up 10 percent week-on-week and weekend volumes rose 20 percent, with fashion driving the strongest growth.

Late Peak Predictions and Delivery Challenges

Both data and conversations with retailers suggest the seasonal peak may arrive later than usual, possibly in the final week before Christmas. While this could create a concentrated rush of sales, it also brings risk for delivery capacity and on-time fulfilment. Royal Mail strikes during key dates like Black Friday and Cyber Monday are expected to cause delays and backlogs, affecting retailers reliant on this carrier. The FIFA World Cup, taking place unusually at this time of year, could also temporarily dampen online sales on match days.

Rising Delivery Costs and Operational Pressure

Retailers face higher operational costs, with average fuel surcharges for road transport this year at 38% to 39% compared to 19% last year. Some large brands, such as Zara and Next, have adjusted free delivery and returns policies to manage costs and others may follow.

Retailer Strategies for Resilience

Experts advise building contingency into delivery operations, using multiple carriers to spread risk and reviewing free delivery and returns policies. Maintaining accurate customer data and optimising checkout experiences can help secure conversions. As uncertainty remains, retailers are bracing for a volatile end to the year while focusing on long-term operational flexibility.