Peak Bulletin 2024 – Issue 1

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Introduction

Peak season 2023 brought significant challenges for UK retailers. The cost-of-living crisis weakened consumer confidence, while global supply chain disruptions increased costs and delays.

As we dive into the heart of Peak season, cautious optimism is building among consumers despite ongoing economic uncertainty. With festive spending on the rise, retailers face a pivotal opportunity to balance financial pressures with delivering exceptional customer experiences.

This first bulletin explores the evolving dynamics of consumer confidence, and the critical role of delivery in shaping perceptions and strategies to navigate peak challenges with simple things like transparent communication.

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Retail & Consumer Pulse

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Retail Economics

Cautious Optimism Among Consumers as Black Friday Approaches

Signs of optimism are emerging among consumers despite ongoing economic uncertainty and a mixed response to the Chancellor’s Budget.

Nearly one in four consumers (24%) plan to increase spending on non-essential items during the golden quarter (October to December), up from 21% in Q3.

Q. Now, thinking about your spending on non-essential items over the next three months, which statement best describes your intentions?

Source: Retail Economics, n=2000

Despite fragile financial confidence — with just under a third (32%) of consumers expecting their finances to weaken compared to 26% anticipating improvement — many are still willing to prioritise festive indulgence.

Concerns around rising mortgage and rent costs, alongside the potential ripple effects of higher taxes on businesses, are top of mind for consumers heading into next year. However, consumers have become adept at balancing financial pressures with carefully planned seasonal spending, turning to savvy shopping strategies.

Retailers will look to capitalise on pent-up demand during events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with over a third (36%) of shoppers delaying seasonal purchases in anticipation of discounts.

Categories such as Electricals, Clothing & Footwear, and Health & Beauty are expected to benefit most, emphasising the importance of compelling offers and targeted promotions.

As the season progresses, this cautious yet improving confidence underscores a balance between financial prudence and the desire to celebrate. By focusing on value, quality and meaningful connections, retailers can capitalise on increased willingness to spend and make this peak season a success.

Q. Have you delayed purchasing retail products in anticipation of Black Friday discounts?

Source: Retail Economics, n=2000

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Delivery Spotlight

UK retailers are operating in the third-largest eCommerce market globally, where customer perceptions are heavily influenced by delivery quality.

63% of customers who experience a delivery problem during this high stakes period, take action that directly impacts a retailer’s reputation and bottom line. While 19% decide not to order from the retailer again.

The good news? Consumer preferences are evolving in ways that give retailers more control. Speed of delivery is becoming less important, with fewer customers willing to pay for next-day delivery.

Instead, many consumers prefer:

  • Cost-effective options: Price-conscious shoppers are open to slower delivery if it lowers costs.
  • Precise delivery windows: Customers value certainty over speed, opting for deliveries that fit their schedules.
  • Sustainable choices: Green delivery options resonate, particularly with younger, eco-conscious shoppers.

Pro Tips

  • Present achievable delivery options: Offer a range of realistic delivery dates and prices based on real-time capacity insights.

  • Pro-active updates: Keep customers informed throughout the delivery journey, especially during unexpected delays.
  • Proof of delivery: Use photo and signature capture to provide assurance for high-value items, which are often purchased during peak season.

By aligning delivery promises with operational capacity, businesses can reduce missed deliveries and reinforce customer confidence.

Join the Conversation

Delivery Mistakes
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According to Hannah Lia, Operations Director at Hampers.com:

“It’s usually close to the ‘Strictly Come Dancing’ finale when we see people really get into Christmas, and all of a sudden our orders more than double overnight. So for us, it’s all about using clever and creative ways to spread out the demand in December.

We work closely on carrier capacities daily with GFS and our account managers. So if we need to chop and change carriers, we were able to do that with great flexibility because we’ve got multiple carriers.”

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