Peak Bulletin 2025 – Issue 5

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Introduction

As we move deeper into the final stretch before Christmas, Peak pressure remains firmly in play. While the headline surge from Black Friday and Cyber Monday has eased, delivery networks continue to operate at elevated volumes as retailers and consumers shift their focus to delivery certainty.

With Christmas Day falling mid-week, the coming days will be critical for maintaining service performance, managing cut-off expectations and responding quickly to any disruption.

Consumer Shopping Behaviour ‘Tis Season

Consumer behaviour has now firmly transitioned from deal-driven shopping to delivery-led decision-making. Shoppers are prioritising speed, reliability and clarity at checkout, with next-day and premium delivery options becoming increasingly popular as Christmas approaches.

Late purchasing remains a key theme, placing additional importance on accurate delivery promises, pro-active customer communication and contingency planning for last-minute demand spikes.

Source: Retail Economics, UK eCommerce Seasonal Trend Analysis

Carrier Capacity, Volume & Market Growth

  • Following the exceptionally high parcel volumes experienced during the peak trading period around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, volumes eased last week but remained in line with forecast expectations.

  • While the key peak weeks have now passed, overall parcel volumes continue to run significantly above the annual average and are more than 10% higher than in the same week last year.

  • A further reduction in volumes is anticipated this week. However, the delivery profile is expected to shift as the week progresses, with both retailers and consumers expected to select more next-day delivery options to ensure pre-Christmas deliveries.

  • With Christmas Day falling mid-week, parcel volumes are expected to remain strong through to Tuesday, 23rd December. As a result, sustained demand is forecast for the remainder of this week and across the weekend.

  • There were some service impacts during the week due to Storm Bram. Ferry cancellations led to delays for deliveries to Northern Ireland, Ireland and the Isle of Man. Deliveries to these areas are expected to be back on track by the end of this week.

  • Overall carrier performance has remained strong. A small number of delivery areas have experienced delays and this has primarily been driven by higher-than-forecast volumes in specific postcodes.

Source: GFS

Courier with ipad

Cost Pressures & Operational Readiness

Despite easing volumes, cost pressures remain elevated across the delivery landscape. Premium delivery selections, weather-related disruption and postcode-specific spikes are all contributing to operational complexity in the final days before Christmas.

Retailers with flexible carrier strategies, realistic delivery promises and clear customer communications are best positioned to protect margins while maintaining service levels. Those relying on a single delivery route or rigid cut-offs may feel increased pressure as demand concentrates into fewer delivery days.

Source: GFS

Our GFS experts can…

  • Support real-time carrier allocation to protect service levels
  • Advise on delivery promise adjustments as demand shifts
  • Provide contingency options for weather or regional disruption
  • Help balance speed, cost and customer expectations during the final Peak push

We’re here to help you keep parcels moving and customers informed. When you’re off the pressures of the current Peak and ready to review your strategy for 2026, we’ll be happy to support with our experience and expertise.

Read the latest from our blog

Bulletin Wrap-Up

Peak may be nearing its end, but delivery demand remains high and unforgiving of error. With fewer days left, the focus now is execution: choosing the right delivery options, communicating clearly with customers and staying agile as conditions change.

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