Peak Bulletin 2025 – Issue 3
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Introduction
Peak has shifted into high gear. After weeks of cautious spending, shoppers are finally moving — and delivery performance is now under more pressure than at any point this season.
The next 10 days will determine who wins Cyber Week, and who gets buried under backlogs, WISMO and missed promises.
Consumer Shopping Behaviour ‘Tis Season
UK shoppers are in full bargain-hunt mode, but they’re buying on their terms. October 2025 retail sales fell 1.1% as consumers held back for Black Friday value. Now, they’re spending fast, mostly on mobile and choosing retailers who show clear delivery cut-offs, reliable timelines and simple returns. Deal fatigue is real.
Source: The Guardian (ONS Retail Sales, Oct 2025), Experian
Carrier Capacity, Volume & Market Growth
We experienced substantial volume growth in the lead-up to Black Friday, with a notable increase in Week 48 shipments compared with Week 47.
Despite some consumer sentiment that interest in Black Friday sales might be waning, consumer engagement was very strong, this was driven by wide ranging product promotions and significant discounts; across the full week parcel volumes exceeded forecast.
All carriers operated full weekend delivery schedules, with several reporting record parcel volumes over the Cyber Weekend period. The focus has been to clear as much volume as possible in readiness for a week of similar if not slightly higher volume this week.
Carrier networks and driver resources are operating close to full capacity. Overall service performance has remained strong. However, some localised delays have occurred in areas recently affected by severe weather and in regions experiencing ongoing driver recruitment challenges.
While icy conditions have eased over the past week, continued adverse weather, including high winds, heavy rain and the risk of localised flooding, may further impact delivery performance across Cyber Week.
Cost Pressures & Operational Readiness
The UK parcel market is growing, but the cost base is tightening. The Courier, Express & Parcel (CEP) sector is valued at USD 17B+ in 2025. Yet labour, fuel and last-mile costs continue to rise, shrinking the margin window for retailers.
Carrier networks are running close to capacity. Any volume spike now risks delays.
- Retailers performing best this week are those who:
- Split volume across multiple carriers
- Front-load fulfilment early in the week
- Use lockers & out-of-home delivery to ease doorstep pressure
- Communicate proactively with accurate delivery updates
- Highlight simple returns at checkout to remove hesitation
Delivery discipline this week = margin protection next week.
Source: Mordor Intelligence (UK CEP Market 2025)
Our GFS experts can…
… review your routing strategy, identify operational pressure points, and deploy quick multi-carrier adjustments to protect delivery performance through Cyber Week.
Need support optimising delivery operations, cost and performance?
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Bulletin Wrap-Up
- Cyber Week is now the defining stretch of Peak 2025.
- Shoppers are ready to spend. Carriers are close to capacity.
- The winners in the days ahead will be retailers who keep delivery promises tight, communication clear, and operations steady under pressure.
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