Peak Bulletin 2025 – Issue 1
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Introduction
Black Friday 2025 is set to be one of the most intense trading periods on record. UK consumers are expected to spend £9.5bn over the weekend, up 5.7% YoY, but this surge is powered by value hunters, not carefree spenders.
Baskets may be bigger, but margin pressure is tighter than ever.
Consumer Shopping Behaviour ‘Tis Season
Shoppers are moving earlier and more decisively. Nearly half of UK consumers (49%) say they plan to make Christmas gift purchases during Black Friday sales, while more than a quarter intend to complete all festive shopping before the weekend even starts.
This shows a marked shift in shopping intent. Consumers are spreading their spend earlier, scanning for value, and expecting delivery options that keep up with their tight schedules.
The online battleground will be almost entirely mobile-led again this year. In 2024, 79% of site traffic during Black Friday came from mobile devices, and that figure is expected to rise further in 2025. Retailers that fail to deliver fast, frictionless mobile checkout and delivery transparency risk immediate basket abandonment.
source: ecommercenews
73% of global shoppers say they won’t buy from an online retailer if they don’t trust the delivery provider.
- In Europe, 77% of shoppers said they wouldn’t buy if they don’t trust the delivery provider.
- In the UK specifically: 46% of consumers plan to increase in-store shopping in 2025, versus only 31% planning to increase online purchases.
59.5% of UK consumers are concerned about rising delivery and return costs, and 49.5% are worried about delivery delays.
Carrier Capacity, Volume & Market Growth
Operationally, networks are under strain: parcel traffic is expected to spike by more than 200% during Peak periods, yet many major carriers report only ~5% capacity growth.
Cross-border eCommerce has shifted from niche to normal, with around 59% of global online shoppers buying internationally monthly, and UK merchants seeing roughly a third of Peak traffic coming from overseas orders.
This means, cross-border eCommerce has evolved from a secondary stream to a core driver of Q4 volumes. Retailers without robust international fulfilment or customs-ready processes risk late deliveries and lost customers in this critical period.
Despite high volumes, the mood across UK retail is cautious. Retail Economics and IMRG data suggest that retail sales growth slowed to just 1.6% in October 2025, the weakest since early spring, as consumers delayed discretionary purchases in anticipation of Black Friday deals.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressure on logistics remains, with delivery and returns costs among the fastest-rising operational expenses for online retailers this year.
Consumer patience is wearing thin. A DHL eCommerce Insights study found that 73% of global shoppers will not buy again from a retailer if they don’t trust the delivery experience.
With 66% of UK shoppers saying “value for money” is their top deciding factor for gift purchases, ahead of brand or convenience, retailers face the dual challenge of offering competitive pricing and flawless delivery execution.
Cost Pressures & Operational Readiness
Peak 2025 isn’t about volume; it’s about velocity. Those who can flex carriers, protect delivery promises and communicate clearly through the last mile will not only survive, but strengthen loyalty into 2026. Those who can’t will find that one late parcel can undo months of marketing spend.
Bulletin Wrap-Up
Peak 2025 is defined less by demand and more by the pressure to deliver flawlessly in a mature, high-expectation market. Growth will favour those retailers who can balance capacity, cost and customer experience with operational precision.
The challenge is shifting from “getting online” to “delivering online well” in a competitive, high-expectation environment.
The UK market is highly mature; further gains will come from experience, efficiency and innovation, not simply more website traffic.
Consumers are demanding: if delivery is slow, expensive, opaque or poorly handled, they. will. abandon.
Carrier networks and parcel volumes are rising, but at a slower rate, making capacity, cost control and differentiation essential.
Retailers must focus on operational excellence (on-time delivery, accurate fulfilment, efficient returns) rather than just sales growth.
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