Peak Bulletin 2025 – Issue 4
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Introduction
Cyber Week may be behind us, but Peak is entering its most decisive phase. Last week delivered historic parcel volumes across the UK. And now comes the part that truly tests operational resilience: the final two-week sprint where speed, accuracy and customer communication matter more than ever.
With just two weeks left until Christmas and as consumer urgency intensifies, agility is becoming the key differentiator.
Consumer Shopping Behaviour ‘Tis Season
Consumers are shopping with sharper intent and less patience, driven by rising confidence that online delivery can still meet Christmas deadlines. UK research points to four clear behavioural shifts:
“Deadline shopping” has officially begun.
IMRG reports a strong uplift in next-day delivery selection as shoppers move from deal-hunting to time-sensitive gifting.Conversion now hinges on delivery clarity.
BRC data shows that shoppers are 2.5x more likely to convert when delivery cut-offs and tracking expectations are clearly stated.Frugal but not slow.
ONS spending data for December suggests discretionary purchases are more considered, but customers will still pay premiums for reliability, especially in toys, beauty, consumer tech and gifting categories.Tracking interactions have surged.
Retail Economics notes increased customer reliance on parcel tracking during the second half of Peak, a sign of heightened delivery anxiety as Christmas approaches.
Source: IMRG, British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Carrier Capacity, Volume & Market Growth
Peak trading hit its true peak last week, with multiple carriers managing record-breaking Cyber Monday volumes
Natural volume declined on Friday and over the weekend, following the intense order surge at the start of last week
Carrier collection compliance and delivery performance has remained excellent, even with the challenge of handling unprecedented 24-hour parcel volumes
Carrier partners significantly increased the number of drivers delivering over the weekend, aiming to deliver as many parcels as possible ahead of schedule and start the new week in the strongest operational position
Significant volume uplift in a number of categories including fashion, electronics and gifting
Volumes are expected to ease slightly this week as Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions taper off. However, expectation is that gifting will remain very strong heading into the crucial final two weeks before Christmas
Source: GFS
Cost Pressures & Operational Readiness
UK retailers are now navigating a three-way balancing act: customer promises, cost control and operational readiness. Current market intelligence highlights:
Higher exception handling costs as customers accelerate “where is my order?” queries, especially for gifts.
Peak surcharges and inflated fulfilment costs are still in play and squeezing margins. Retailers with multi-carrier models are offsetting costs more effectively by flexing service types.
Retailers who moved early on cut-off messaging are seeing meaningfully lower customer service load.
Many brands are making tactical carrier switches to maintain service reliability following Cyber Week congestion.
Returns readiness is top of mind, with ONS and Retail Week forecasting the first major returns spike to hit between 27th December and 4th January.
source: IMRG, ONS, Retail Week
Our GFS experts can…
- Provide real-time guidance on carrier performance as the UK enters its most time-critical delivery window.
- Recommend service mixes to keep parcels moving smoothly through the home stretch to Christmas.
- Help optimise tracking and customer communication to reduce WISMO contacts.
- Build contingency routes and fulfilment fallbacks to protect your busiest trading days.
When you review Peak 2025 and need support with strategising for 2026, we’ll be here ready to replicate the success we are currently delivering for our customers.
“Sales volume forecasting is almost impossible for us, but with the flexibility of GFS’ solution, we can satisfy demand even during our busiest periods.”
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Bulletin Wrap-Up
With Cyber Week behind us, agility becomes your strongest asset. Reliability, clarity and customer-centric delivery execution will define the winners of Peak 2025. Those who stay flexible, adjusting carrier services and refining communication, are best placed not only to finish Peak strong, but to start 2026 with momentum.
Stay sharp. Stay flexible. Stay customer-first.
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