Peak Bulletin 2025 – Issue 2
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Introduction
After a muted start to Peak, the market has finally woken up. The past week delivered a stronge surge as consumers, fuelled by November pay packets, shifted from browsing to buying.
Retailers now face a decisive moment: promotions alone won’t win this week. Speed, stability and fulfilment discipline will determine who captures demand—and who struggles through Cyber Week.
Consumer Shopping Behaviour ‘Tis Season
UK shoppers are laser-focused on value and timing. Early-November deals didn’t persuade them, but as discounts deepen and pay day hits, conversion is climbing sharply.
Most consumers have spent the last two weeks researching, price-tracking and “waiting for the real deals”. Meaning the next 10 days will be intensely competitive.
Mobile traffic continues to dominate evening peaks, and colder weather is pushing more shoppers online. Reliability messaging (“Guaranteed by Christmas”, “Tracked”, “Flexible returns”) is cutting through strongly as shoppers become more cautious about service disruption.
Source: Retail Economics, Barclays Consumer Spending Index
Carrier Capacity, Volume & Market Growth
Slower than expected start to Peak but in the last week volumes have started to reach the expected levels.
Volumes in week 46 were lower than forecast across almost all sectors including fashion, homeware and gifting. In Week 47 we saw an uplift with volumes moving to be in line with forecasts.
A number of retailers had advised that they would go early this year with Black Friday promotions but these do not seem to have gained any real traction with consumers until we moved into the latter part of November and over the last few days the Christmas spirit has started to kick in with consumers.
Almost all retailers websites are now shaded in Black and offering Black Friday discounts with most offers ranging between 20% to 50% sale discounts.
Carriers service performance has remained strong overall despite some tough challenges in November, this was initially due to Storm Claudia resulting in strong winds and flooding in many parts of the country and multiple ferry crossing delays to Ireland and Northern Ireland
More recently snowy conditions have impact deliveries in parts of Scotland, Wales and Northern England. The weather in the coming days is forecast to be much milder and will be a welcome relief for those areas that were most impact by the snow last week
Volume is expect to increase significantly this week in the final days before Black Friday. This will be boosted as consumers use their November pay packets to fully kick start Peak volumes in 2025.
Source: GFS
Cost Pressures & Operational Readiness
Consumers may be chasing discounts, but retailers are juggling rising costs behind the scenes. Carrier surcharges, fuel, storage, labour and returns processing remain stubbornly high, tightening the gap between promotional depth and profit margin.
The retailers seeing the strongest early Peak performance are those who:
- Flex carriers dynamically rather than relying on a single network
- Maintain tight cut-offs and real-time delivery comms
- Smooth fulfilment early in the week to offset end-week pressure
- Use clear Christmas delivery guarantees to increase confidence
- Surface transparent returns policies to remove buying hesitation
As Peak accelerates, last-mile clarity will become a critical levers to protect both margin and customer experience.
Our GFS experts can analyse your current routing and identify fast wins for your business.
Source: GFS
Bulletin Wrap-Up
Cyber Week will reward operational maturity over promotional noise.
Peak 2025 has officially entered high gear. Early promotions didn’t move consumers, but momentum is now building fast. And with weather disruptions easing, carrier networks stabilising and pay-weekend spend kicking in, the next 7 days will set the tone for the entire season.
The winners of Peak 2025 will be those who communicate clearly and maintain consistency through unpredictable conditions.
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